Bezoek Hr. Ms. Tromp

15 juli 2012
Het fregat Hr. Ms. Tromp komt binnenkort naar San Juan.
De leden van de Dutch Club hebben inmiddels een per email een uitnodiging voor een receptie aan boord van het schip ontvangen.

Hr. Ms. Tromp


Dear members of the Dutch community in PR,


This Sunday, July 1 2012 at 2.30 pm a mass will be celebrated for Stefano Steenbakkers at the San Juan Bosco church in the Canteras neighborhood of San Juan.
For those who want to offer their condolences to the family and personally say farewell to Stefano, his body will be at the Ehret funeral home Saturday from 12 noon till 9pm.
On Monday his remains will be cremated.

Thank you all for being so supportive to Eric and Zorimar with your Facebook comments and emails, I will relay them to him .


Best Regards,
Robbert van Hartingsveldt

Dear members of the Dutch community in Puerto Rico,


Last night I was informed by my dear friend Eric Steenbakkers that his son Stefano had been officially declared dead at 4pm Wednesday due to the extend of the brain damage inflicted by the bullet to the head he received during a carjacking attempt this past Sunday in Dorado.

On behalf of all of us I expressed our deep sympathy with him and his family.

Stefano will be kept on the life support system in his room at the University Pediatric Hospital to preserve his organs, which, according to his (and his parents') wishes will be donated to persons in need.

While writing this message I realize how unfair (and unpredictable) life can be sometimes; That the most giving, innocent, talented and promising young person we know can be taken away by a stupid random act of violence on a Sunday night on the island we call home.


With great sadness,
Robbert -Jan van Hartingsveldt
6-28-2012

EK Voetbal 2012

EK 2012

Het nieuwe bestuur van de Dutch Club (Chris Lakens, Miriam Lauers, Rob Köhler en Michel Notten) heeft de club weer leven ingeblazen.

Ter gelegenheid van het EK voetbal waren er perfect georganiseerde viewing parties met tosties en koffie, bier en bitterballen en een groot scherm.

Jammer dat het Nederlands elftal er dit jaar niet veel van maakte..

Foto's van de parties zijn te bekijken in het foto album.

Speciale dank gaat aan het Sheraton hotel en Heineken!

Koninginnedag 2012


Koningin Beatrix

Op zondag 29 Aprli jl. was er een receptie ter gelegenheid van de verjaardag van H.M. Koningin Beatrix in het Sheraton (convention center) hotel.

Bij deze gelegenheid werd Chris Lakens tot voorzitter van de Dutch Club "gebombardeerd".

Hartelijk dank aan Michel Notten en Dominique Haacke voor de goede zorgen!

Foto's van de receptie staan in het foto album.


Aktuele hurricane informatie

NHC Atlantic NHC Atlantic
Last Downloaded: Tue, 26 Sep 2017 10:26:37 GMT.
View The Raw XML Source Of NHC Atlantic.
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook  
000
ABNT20 KNHC 260537
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Maria, located a few hundred miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, North
Carolina, and on Hurricane Lee, located over the central Atlantic
Ocean.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Summary for Hurricane Lee (AT4/AL142017)   ...LEE STILL STRENGTHENING AND MOVING A LITTLE FASTER WESTWARD... As of 5:00 AM AST Tue Sep 26 the center of Lee was located near 30.0, -52.5 with movement W at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 977 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.
Hurricane Lee Public Advisory Number 33  Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Sep 26 2017

000
WTNT34 KNHC 260844
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lee Advisory Number  33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017
500 AM AST Tue Sep 26 2017

...LEE STILL STRENGTHENING AND MOVING A LITTLE FASTER WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.0N 52.5W
ABOUT 745 MI...1195 KM E OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1555 MI...2500 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located
near latitude 30.0 North, longitude 52.5 West. Lee is moving toward
the west near 10 mph (17 km/h).  A turn toward the west-northwest
with some decrease in forward speed is forecast early Wednesday,
followed by a turn northwestward by Wednesday evening.  Lee is
forecast to turn northward and gradually increase in forward speed
on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some strengthening is expected over the next 24 hours or
so.  A weakening trend is expected to commence on Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles
(75 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

Hurricane Lee Forecast Advisory Number 33  Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 26 2017

000
WTNT24 KNHC 260844
TCMAT4
 
HURRICANE LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142017
0900 UTC TUE SEP 26 2017
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.0N  52.5W AT 26/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  977 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.0N  52.5W AT 26/0900Z
AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.1N  52.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 29.9N  53.9W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 30.2N  55.4W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 30.9N  56.4W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 32.2N  56.6W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 36.9N  53.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE  90SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 44.5N  40.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 50.9N  22.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.0N  52.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS
 
 
Hurricane Lee Forecast Discussion Number 33  Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Sep 26 2017

000
WTNT44 KNHC 260845
TCDAT4

Hurricane Lee Discussion Number  33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017
500 AM AST Tue Sep 26 2017

Lee's cloud pattern has continued to become better organized this
evening.  The eye has cleared out and has warmed to nearly 10
degrees Celsius, and the eye wall cloud tops have cooled to
-63 degrees Celsius.  The initial intensity is increased modestly to
85 kt and is based on a blend of the subjective and objective Dvorak
T-numbers.  It is worth noting that the ADT adjusted raw T-number
yields an estimated intensity of 97 kt based on an eye scene-type.

The previously noted southeasterly shear undercutting the diffluent
flow aloft has certainly diminished and should remain low for the
next 48 hours or so.  During this initial period, Lee could get a
little stronger as indicated in the HWRF hurricane model and the
Decay-SHIPS.  Afterward, increasing vertical shear, primarily due to
the outflow generated by Maria, and decreasing sea surface
temperatures should induce a gradual weakening trend as the cyclone
moves into a high latitude baroclinic zone and ultimately becomes an
extratropical cyclone in 4 days.  The intensity forecast is
basically an update of 6 hours ago, and follows an average of the
IVCN and Florida State Superensemble guidance.

The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 260/9 kt.  The
cyclone is expected to continue moving within the easterly mid-level
steering flow, produced by a relatively narrow mid-tropospheric
ridge situated to the north, during the next 24 hours.  Afterward,
a combination of a broad mid- to upper-level shortwave trough moving
out of the eastern Canadian Provinces and a subtropical ridge
building east of Lee should steer the hurricane gradually
northwestward and northward.  On day 3 and beyond,  Lee is forecast
to accelerate northeastward as it becomes embedded in a deep-layer
high latitude southwesterly flow downstream from the aforementioned
shortwave trough.  Global models and the Cyclone Phase Evolution
analysis/forecast product show Lee become a extratropical
cyclone no later than day 4.  The NHC forecast track is a little
south of the previous one through 48 hours, but similar
thereafter, and is based on the TVCX and HCCA consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/0900Z 30.0N  52.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  26/1800Z 29.9N  53.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  27/0600Z 30.2N  55.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  27/1800Z 30.9N  56.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  28/0600Z 32.2N  56.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  29/0600Z 36.9N  53.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  30/0600Z 44.5N  40.2W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  01/0600Z 50.9N  22.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Roberts

Hurricane Lee Wind Speed Probabilities Number 33  Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 26 2017

000
FONT14 KNHC 260844
PWSAT4
                                                                    
HURRICANE LEE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  33                   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142017               
0900 UTC TUE SEP 26 2017                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LEE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.0 
NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS
...100 MPH...155 KM/H.                                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER ROBERTS                                                  
Hurricane Lee Graphics   Hurricane Lee 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 26 Sep 2017 08:51:43 GMT

Hurricane Lee 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 26 Sep 2017 09:21:57 GMT
Summary for Hurricane Maria (AT5/AL152017)   ...MARIA WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AS IT CONTINUES NORTHWARD... As of 5:00 AM EDT Tue Sep 26 the center of Maria was located near 32.9, -73.1 with movement N at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 970 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
Hurricane Maria Public Advisory Number 41  Issued at 500 AM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017

000
WTNT35 KNHC 260845
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Advisory Number  41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
500 AM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017

...MARIA WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AS IT CONTINUES NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.9N 73.1W
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bogue Inlet to the North Carolina/Virginia border
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Cape Lookout to Duck

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Maria was located
near latitude 32.9 North, longitude 73.1 West. Maria is moving
toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion with
some decrease in forward speed is expected through tonight.  A turn
toward the north-northeast is expected on Wednesday.  On the
forecast track, the center of Maria will pass east of the coast of
North Carolina during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are now near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Continued gradual weakening is forecast during the next
couple of days, and Maria is forecast to become a tropical storm
tonight or Wednesday.

Maria remains a large hurricane.  Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km).

The minimum central pressure recently reported by a NOAA Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 970 mb (28.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area beginning later today.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Lookout to Duck including the sound side of the Outer
Banks...2 to 4 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL:  Maria is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 1 to 2 inches over the Outer Banks of North Carolina through
Wednesday.

SURF:  Large swells generated by Maria are affecting much of the
east coast of the United States from Florida through southern New
England.  These swells are also affecting Bermuda, Puerto Rico, the
northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and
the Bahamas.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your local
weather office for more information.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Hurricane Maria Forecast Advisory Number 41  Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 26 2017

000
WTNT25 KNHC 260844
TCMAT5

HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  41
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152017
0900 UTC TUE SEP 26 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER
* ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE LOOKOUT TO DUCK

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.9N  73.1W AT 26/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 90NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT.......120NE 120SE  90SW  90NW.
34 KT.......200NE 210SE 160SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..440NE 440SE 240SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.9N  73.1W AT 26/0900Z
AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.6N  73.1W

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 33.7N  73.2W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 90NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT...120NE 120SE  90SW  90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 160SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 34.6N  73.1W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT...120NE 120SE  90SW  90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 160SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 35.4N  72.7W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT...100NE 110SE 100SW  90NW.
34 KT...190NE 200SE 170SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 35.8N  71.7W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 110SE  90SW  70NW.
34 KT...180NE 200SE 180SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 37.0N  66.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 110SE  90SW  70NW.
34 KT...180NE 200SE 180SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 41.0N  53.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 48.0N  35.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.9N  73.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Hurricane Maria Forecast Discussion Number 41  Issued at 500 AM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017

000
WTNT45 KNHC 260846
TCDAT5

Hurricane Maria Discussion Number  41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
500 AM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017

Maria is feeling the effects of the cool sea surface temperatures
left in the wake of Hurricane Jose.  Satellite imagery shows that
the convective pattern is gradually losing organization, with the
remaining convection in a cluster to the southeast of the center
and in bands well to the east of the center.  In addition, the
aircraft-reported central pressure has risen to 970 mb.  While there
have been no observations of hurricane-force winds from the Stepped
Frequency Microwave Radiometer on the NOAA Hurricane Hunter
currently in the cyclone, it is likely that they still exist in
areas east of the center where the airplane has not yet sampled.
The initial intensity is lowered to a somewhat uncertain 65 kt based
mainly on the rising central pressure since the last advisory.

The combination of the cool water and moderate shear should cause
Maria to gradually weaken during the forecast period, with the
system now expected to weaken to a tropical storm in less than 24 h.
Near the 120 h point, the cyclone is expected to merge with a
frontal system and become extratropical.  The new intensity forecast
is an update of the previous advisory.

The initial motion remains 360/6, with Maria moving northward on the
western side of the subtropical ridge.  A mid- to upper-level ridge
over the northeastern United States to the north of the cyclone is
likely to keep the motion slow for the next 36-48 h.  After that,
the mid-latitude westerlies are forecast to move southward across
the northeastern United States and break down the subtropical
ridge.  This should lead to Maria turning east-northeastward and
accelerating after 48 h.  The track guidance is in good agreement
with this scenario, and the new forecast track is close to the
previous track until 120 h, where it is nudged a bit to the south.
The track is also close to the center of the guidance envelope.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Maria is forecast to continue moving northward, paralleling the
U.S. east coast for the next 36-48 hours, and it is likely that some
direct impacts will occur along portions of the North Carolina coast
beginning later today, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.

2. Storm surge flooding, especially along the sound side of the
North Carolina Outer Banks, is expected beginning later today, and a
Storm Surge Watch has been issued for portions of eastern North
Carolina.

3. Swells generated by Maria are affecting much of the east coast of
the United States from Florida through southern New England.  These
swells are also affecting Bermuda, Puerto Rico, the northern coast
of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas.  These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office
for more information.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/0900Z 32.9N  73.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  26/1800Z 33.7N  73.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  27/0600Z 34.6N  73.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  27/1800Z 35.4N  72.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  28/0600Z 35.8N  71.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  29/0600Z 37.0N  66.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  30/0600Z 41.0N  53.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  01/0600Z 48.0N  35.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven

Hurricane Maria Wind Speed Probabilities Number 41  Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 26 2017

000
FONT15 KNHC 260845
PWSAT5
                                                                    
HURRICANE MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  41                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152017               
0900 UTC TUE SEP 26 2017                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
32.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H.                                         
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)
HIBERNIA OILFD 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MONTAUK POINT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ISLIP NY       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NYC JFK AIRPRT 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
TRENTON NJ     34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
NWS EARLE NJ   34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
PHILADELPHIA   34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
ATLANTIC CITY  34  X   2( 2)   5( 7)   2( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
BALTIMORE MD   34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
DOVER DE       34  X   3( 3)   4( 7)   2( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
ANNAPOLIS MD   34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
WASHINGTON DC  34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
CAPE HENLOPEN  34  X   6( 6)   5(11)   2(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
OCEAN CITY MD  34  3   6( 9)   6(15)   3(18)   1(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 
PAX RIVER NAS  34  X   5( 5)   4( 9)   2(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
WALLOPS CDA    34  4   5( 9)   7(16)   3(19)   1(20)   X(20)   X(20)
 
RICHMOND VA    34  1   5( 6)   4(10)   1(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
NORFOLK NAS    34  5   5(10)   8(18)   2(20)   1(21)   X(21)   X(21)
 
NORFOLK VA     34  5   7(12)   8(20)   2(22)   1(23)   X(23)   X(23)
 
OCEANA NAS VA  34  6   7(13)   9(22)   3(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)
 
ELIZABETH CTY  34  7   9(16)   9(25)   3(28)   1(29)   X(29)   X(29)
 
RALEIGH NC     34  1   3( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
ROCKY MT NC    34  4   4( 8)   4(12)   1(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34 29  17(46)   8(54)   2(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)
CAPE HATTERAS  50  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
FAYETTEVILLE   34  2   3( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
CHERRY PT NC   34  9   8(17)   5(22)   2(24)   1(25)   X(25)   X(25)
 
NEW RIVER NC   34 15  12(27)   6(33)   2(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34 11   9(20)   6(26)   2(28)   1(29)   X(29)   X(29)
 
SURF CITY NC   34  6   4(10)   4(14)   2(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  5   4( 9)   4(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
BALD HEAD ISL  34  5   4( 9)   3(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
LITTLE RIVER   34  4   3( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34  3   2( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
GEORGETOWN SC  34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN                                                    
Hurricane Maria Graphics   Hurricane Maria 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 26 Sep 2017 08:52:30 GMT

Hurricane Maria 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 26 Sep 2017 09:28:14 GMT
Hurricane Maria Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics   Hurricane Maria Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics Image
Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Tue, 26 Sep 2017 09:12:21 GMT
Hurricane Maria Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map   Hurricane Maria Link to Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Tue, 26 Sep 2017 09:20:41 GMT
Hurricane Maria Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map   Hurricane Maria Link to Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Tue, 26 Sep 2017 08:46:36 GMT
Local Statement for Wakefield, VA  Issued at 508 AM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017
Local Statement for Newport/Morehead City, NC  Issued at 537 AM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017


Voor hurricane informatie in onze regio: Stormcarib.com.

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